Before the start of the next NBA season, a financial deadline looms on the horizon, with the prospect of forcing teams to make potentially difficult decisions.
That deadline is the contract extension deadline, which falls on Oct. 21, one day before opening night of the 2024-25 season. With just over two months to go, the Orlando Magic are one of the few teams with a chance to secure a member of their young core who has played a crucial role in the future.
In this case, we’re talking about Jalen Suggs, who is entering the final season of his initial four-year, $29.95 million rookie contract that he signed after being selected fifth overall by the Magic in the 2021 NBA draft.
In an offseason that saw the Magic make calculated moves aimed at further cementing a consistent spot near the top of the Eastern Conference – They also talk about it publicly — that may be the last thing on this summer’s checklist. Suggs’ fellow draft pick Franz Wagner got his comeuppance this summer, agreeing to a five-year, $224 million contract extension that will take him through the 2029-30 season in July.
Suggs’ third season has been his best since joining the NBA, averaging 12.6 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists on a 47.1/39.7/75.6 shooting ratio. His offensive progression has made him the Magic’s third option behind Paolo Banchero and Wagner, and it pairs perfectly with his defensive prowess as one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, which was justified by his selection to the NBA’s All-Defensive Second Team last season.
If the Magic fail to secure Suggs’ future with the Magic before the deadline, he would enter next summer as a restricted free agent. Orlando could then extend him a qualifying offer, which would allow the Magic to match any offer another team makes to Suggs. But signing the former Gonzaga product to a long-term contract this summer would be a vote of confidence in the progression he’s made and how he projects to be a key part of Orlando’s future.
The question then is how much money his contract could bring him.
Other players from his draft class who signed extensions include Evan Mobley with Cleveland, Cade Cunningham with Detroit and Scottie Barnes with Toronto, in addition to the aforementioned Wagner deal. Each new contract that quartet gets is a max contract, reserved for those who are typically a top, or second-tier, option for their franchise.
The way teams structure their contracts is also altered from previous years by the current collective bargaining agreement, which heavily penalizes financially teams that bid too many expensive contracts and exceed tax caps. It also limits the flexibility a team has in what transactions it can make. In fact, it’s a status most teams seek to avoid at all costs, even if it means letting talented players move freely.
With Paolo Banchero a max-contract caliber player secured and eligible for an extension next summer, where his rookie max extension can be worth up to 25% of a team’s salary cap and increase with incentives for All-NBA nods and above, Wagner and Banchero will be worth nearly 50% of the initial salary cap ($140.588 million in 2024-25).
Given that, the Magic must next decide how much money they are willing to include in Suggs’ next contract.
“We’re hopeful that it will eventually come to fruition,” Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said in a July interview on SiriusXM NBA Radio about Suggs’ contract extension. “The timeline is different in every conversation. Like I said, we have some young players on our team that we want to try to keep together.”
To find the right number of players to match up against, Suggs’ best comparisons are probably non-max players around his age who have already earned extensions from previous draft classes.
Immanuel Quickley’s new five-year, $175 million contract with Toronto puts him at 23.12 percent of the league’s salary cap, but he’s a second-best option for the Raptors, who have RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown and Jakob Poeltl at 18.3 percent, 16.4 percent and 13.9 percent of the cap, respectively. Barnes’ new deal kicks in after this season, when Brown’s $23 million cap hit is off the books. Quickley is an impressive young guard who has had more latitude since being traded by the Knicks, and his contract reflects Toronto’s interest in him as a potential top-tier player in their system.
Jaden McDaniels’ five-year, $131 million contract in Minnesota makes him the fourth-highest paid player on the Timberwolves, who may be more comfortable with big-ticket contracts despite the current ownership dispute. With 16.37 percent of the league’s salary cap, the 24-year-old McDaniels is the fourth-highest paid player alongside Karl-Anthony Towns (35 percent), Rudy Gobert (31.2 percent) and Anthony Edwards (30 percent). However, given what McDaniels brings to the Timberwolves, his price tag could be considered a better value than one might think at first glance, especially for a team that’s competing in the Western Conference.
With Banchero and Wagner ahead of Suggs in the Magic’s pecking order, paying him the price of a top-two option, like Quickley, could come with risks and potential limitations for the roster going forward. Still, with his performance above that of a fourth option in Orlando’s system, it’s more realistic for him to consider a deal that would exceed the price McDaniels is offering.
Jonathan Isaac’s contract is worth $25 million to Orlando this season after he was re-signed this offseason, but that number drops to $15 million in 2025-26. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s two-year deal is worth 16.2% and 14.0% of the league’s salary cap over the next two years, respectively, with a player option valued at 12.7% in the third year. As for the actual money on the line, Caldwell-Pope’s $66 million is split into $22.75 million this year and $21.6 million the following two years. The year-over-year increase in the salary cap means these inflated numbers are becoming more common in the NBA’s new financial landscape.
The salary cap for the 2025-26 season, the year Suggs’ new contract would take effect, is about $154.6 million. With the Magic’s current contracts, Orlando is projected to have about $31.5 million in flex space under the first tax apron. Could a deal be made with Suggs to get an average annual value (AAV) of about $30 million and keep them under the first apron? Or would the Magic be comfortable leaning into the apron to accommodate Suggs financially?
In June, Keith Smith of Spotrac Suggs’ contract is estimated to be for four years and $112 million, with no options. At $28 million in annual value, he would be worth just over 18.1 percent of the Magic’s salary cap for the ’25-26 season. A four-year deal would allow Suggs to continue his age-27 season, or Orlando could sign him to five years even without a max contract — another new feature of the latest collective bargaining agreement.
For reference, a $30 million AAV deal would put Suggs at 19.4% of the salary cap.
If Suggs were to enter restricted free agency, a 25% cap hit would be over $38 million, meaning an Orlando game would exceed the projected first tax apron.
Therefore, not only is it crucial for Orlando to get the deal done before the season starts to have the financial numbers to support their young guard, but it could help them avoid further restricting themselves by signing him to a max rookie-scale contract or — much worse — losing him entirely to the highest bidder.
Time is money, and with just over two months until the deadline, Suggs and Orlando could be close to finding the right price.
(All contract figures, percentages and future cap projections referenced in this article are provided by Spotrac.)
