There’s no doubt that the 2024 NBA Draft lacked excitement. No top talent stood out from the rest, especially when compared to the excitement of the 2023 class, headlined by Victor Wembanyama.
But fear not, the 2025 class promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory, and the league’s lower-ranked teams are drooling over the prospect of bringing in Cooper Flagg, a freshman out of Duke this season who is projected to go No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft and just signed a lucrative contract with New Balance Monday.
The Utah Jazz is one of the teams that will be seeking to accumulate losses to give the team the best possible lottery chances, but who else will be with them in a race to the bottom of the standings? That’s what we’re here to discuss today.
First, a quick refresher: The 14 teams that miss the playoffs (seven from each conference) are the ones in contention for the lottery. The three teams with the worst regular-season records have the best odds (14%) of getting the top pick. The team with the fourth-worst record has a 12.5% chance, and the odds continue to decrease as records improve.
The first four picks are selected by random draw, then picks five through 14 are determined by reverse regular-season record, so that the team with the worst record in the league is guaranteed a top-five pick.
Now let’s see who will fight for these places.
Utah Jazz
As mentioned above, the Jazz are going to be a losing team this season. They owe the Oklahoma City Thunder a pick, but it’s protected in the top 10, just like last season, and they certainly don’t want that to show. But it’s not just about wanting a top 10 pick. They want to be in contention for one of the top picks, and would be thrilled to get the first overall pick.
Management has already made some roster adjustments by adding seven players under the age of 21 to the team, but it will likely take more than that to ensure the Jazz lose a lot of games. Whether it’s through trades, rest, or being overly cautious about injuries, the Jazz are going to have to use every means possible this year to prevent Lauri Markkanen and company from winning too many games.
Portland Trail Blazers
In the Western Conference, it’s not as clear who will miss the playoffs as it is in the Eastern Conference, but the team the Jazz will be competing with the most to reach the bottom of the standings is the Trail Blazers. The Jazz will have their work cut out for them if they want to lose more games than Portland in the 2024-25 season.
The Blazers had the worst record in the West Division last year, with just 21 wins. But even that was only enough to tie for the third-worst record in the league, earning them the fourth-best lottery odds (after tiebreakers) and subsequently receiving the No. 7 overall pick.
Brooklyn Nets
In the Eastern Conference, it’s much easier to see which team the Jazz will face and the Nets are clearly making a push to be one of the teams at the back of the pack. They traded away their best player (Mikal Bridges) and made a number of deals this offseason that scream “on their way to the lottery!”
The only problem for Brooklyn is that there are a number of teams in the East who will think the exact same thing.
Washington Wizards
To be blunt, it seems like even if the Wizards wanted to be good this year (or any year), they wouldn’t be able to. Even after signing veterans like Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas, the consensus is that the Wizards are too bad to even think about being good. They’ll likely look to trade Kyle Kuzma at some point this season, once they realize there’s no point in trying.
Who else is in the mix?
The Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls will all be in the race at the bottom of the standings, but they probably won’t be able to fall that low against the Nets and Wizards. But all four of these teams can be counted on to prevail against the Nets and Wizards as the season progresses.
In the West, things aren’t as predictable. Will the Spurs take the lead with Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes alongside Wembanyama? Or will they try to pair Flagg and Wembanyama to create a monster team?
The Grizzlies were one of the losingest teams in the West last year, but they are expected to get back into contention with the return of Ja Morant. The Rockets don’t seem to want to lose any games, but as the season progresses, they could end up near the bottom of the pack.
There will likely be a team in the West that shouldn’t be in the basement that ends up making a push for Flagg. For an underdog, keep an eye on the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors, who could end up making deals or shutting down players in order to make the most of a season that likely won’t go well.
