NBA Rookie Center Zach Edey will join the Memphis Grizzlies with expectations that almost match his 7-foot-4 frame.
Should he start? Could he average a double-double? Will he help the Grizzlies return to the top of the Western Conference?
No matter your answers, many agree that Edey’s results will have a major impact on Memphis’ final destination. That’s a lot to put on a rookie, but Edey, the No. 9 overall pick, enters the NBA as one of the most accomplished college basketball players in history.
There have been several NBA centers selected in the top 10 over the last 10 years. This period is a good place to start because it was during this time that the league saw a dramatic shift in the number of three-pointers taken, leading teams to place more emphasis on guard-oriented play.
These days, many centers are asked to protect the rim on defense and make the most efficient and simple offensive plays. In a nutshell, that will be his role in Memphis.
Here’s how Edey projects, based on recent center selections.
Overall results
Since 2015, 14 centers have been drafted in the top 10. Seven of those players averaged double figures as rookies. Six of them were selected in the top three of their respective drafts. Wendell Carter (No. 7) is the only other center selected in the top 10 to average double figures as a rookie since 2015. Myles Turner, the No. 11 overall pick in the 2015 draft, also accomplished the feat. If Edey averages double figures as a rookie, he would join Turner and Carter as the only centers not selected in the top five to do so since 2015.
Aside from 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama, Dereck Lively is the most productive center in the 2023 class. He finished the season with 8.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game in 42 starts.
How rookie pivots succeeded
Rookie centers tend to have a steeper learning curve than other NBA positions. Jakob Poeltl and Zach Collins are examples of top-10 picks who have progressed slowly before becoming effective NBA starters. Poeltl’s skill set is perhaps the most comparable to Edey’s among recent lottery centers. Poeltl became a starter in his fifth NBA season, but he also played behind Jonas Valanciunas and LaMarcus Aldridge. Memphis doesn’t have that kind of obstacle in front of Edey.
Most young centers start out on defense. Since 2016, of the 11 centers drafted in the top 10, only Deandre Ayton and Chet Holmgren had a better offensive plus-minus than their defensive stats. For the others, the difference was significant, with much worse offensive stats. Based on these numbers, Edey’s defense should be the easiest skill to translate to the NBA more quickly.
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How did they fail?
There is a huge difference in style between the NBA and college basketball, and it is a major reason why centers can develop more slowly than other positions. The spacing and faster pace favor guards and wings. NBA centers who are slow on their feet are played off the court and stuck in reserve roles as offensive or defensive specialists. Edey’s ability to play in space on offense and defense will be key to his development.
A dynamic guard or wing with questionable defense can be covered, but it’s not the same with bigs. Many of the recently drafted centers who haven’t become regular starters aren’t productive on either end of the floor. Most of them have shown defensive potential, but bigs who can expose offensive imbalances in a league where turnover is very frequent are gold. The Grizzlies hope they’ve found their lucky charm in Edey.
Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at [email protected]Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.
This article was originally published on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Zach Edey’s expectations for his rookie season with the Memphis Grizzlies
