Houston Rockets fans may be suffering from chronic fatigue syndrome.
There’s a lot to consider. Who will be the core of this team? Which young players will emerge on the other side of an arduous rebuild? Should Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green be extended before next summer?
It’s enough to keep you awake at night. The questions surrounding Green are particularly uncomfortable. He didn’t earn anything resembling a max contract, but letting him walk away without getting anything in return It would be heartbreaking.
We’re going to try to clear it all up for you. We’ll ask a series of questions to determine what Green’s next contract should look like. What should Green do on the field? How close is he to doing it? What’s his overall impact?
Let’s start with those first two questions. Green is supposed to score a lot and do it fairly efficiently. We’ll compare him to some of his peers using True Shooting % (TS%). Then, we’ll look at his Box Plus/Minus (BPM) relative to the field. In doing so, we hope to determine a reasonable price for his services.
Maybe we can relieve your headache.
We’re also only looking at Green’s 2023-24 season. His first two seasons were spent on a tanking team with no structure. Last year was the first time we saw Green in a meaningful NBA environment.
Last year, Green had a TS% of 54.1%. In 2023-24, the league average was 58.0%. So Green was below average.
This is worth further study, though. We can’t just look at a player’s efficiency. We need to consider volume. Typically, a player with a higher volume takes more difficult shots. This is especially likely to impact a point guard like Green.
Green attempted 16.2 field goals per game. An analysis of guards with comparable combinations of volume and efficiency yields only two instructive points of comparison: Cade Cunningham and Jordan Poole.
In 2023-24, Cunningham attempted 18.8 field goals per game. He had a TS% of 54.6%. Poole attempted 15.2 field goals with a gruesome TS% of 52.9%. Cunningham just signed an extension worth an average annual value of $44.8 million, and Poole is in the middle of a contract worth about $32 million per season.
Yet neither comparison is perfect. Cunningham and Green aren’t similar enough to be rigidly compared. Cunningham has better post size, which gives him more defensive potential. He’s also a significantly better playmaker. For the Rockets to justify giving Green the same contract that Detroit gave Cunningham, he’d have to be a significantly better scorer than Cunningham, not a similar scorer.
Plus, the Pistons are in a tough spot. They haven’t drafted as well as the Rockets, generally. Cunningham is their strong suit, while it’s much easier for the Rockets to imagine life without Green.
As for Poole, well, he’s Jordan Poole. His contract is widely considered one of the worst in the NBA. Green is already the best player:
Does it matter?
Otherwise, it’s hard to find a good case study using TS%. We need a young player who shoots a lot of shots and is already on a non-rookie contract. We found both, and neither provided any accuracy.
Could BPM help?
Not particularly.
Green’s BPM in 2023-24 was -0.5. That puts him in the company of a disparate array of players, including OG Anunoby (-0.6), Max Strus (-0.6) and Bobby Portis (-0.8).
Here are some useful (or rather useful) examples. Coby White (-0.7) and Devin Vassell (0.0) are both young guards with important offensive roles and comparable impact to Green according to BPM.
White just signed a short-term extension worth $12 million. Vassell is making $27 million per season. How do they compare to Green?
Well, they’re both much more efficient. White had a TS% of 57.0% in 2023-24. Vassell was at 57.8%. So the Greens shouldn’t pass up Vassell’s money, and even White is a bit over the top, right?
No. White and Vassell are both 23, and Green is 21. In the NBA, that’s an age difference worth considering. It’s also worth noting that White just finished his fifth NBA season, and it was his first year that gave Bulls fans some hope for his future.
Vassell, on the other hand, has been solid. He is a more reliable shooter than Green and a better defender. Vassell is well-placed to complement Victor Wembanyama when he inevitably takes over the world.
NBA teams pay, to some extent, for potential. The Rockets might look at White’s career trajectory and see hope for Green. At the same time, no one wants to maximize Coby White.
We owe you an apology. We haven’t done much to make you feel better. Let’s be honest: Either Green gets Cunningham money from the Rockets or he leaves. None of this really has any real-world application. Still, given Green’s age and untapped potential, we’d personally be comfortable offering him something close to Devin Vassell money.
Verdict: $27 million per season
