After falling further down the Western Conference in each of the last three NBA seasons, from third to sixth to 10th, the Warriors believe they improved during the offseason and, therefore, are ready to climb.
A look at the depth within the conferenceHowever, offers a sobering rebuttal. Being better will not necessarily translate into a better outcome.
The West remains as dense as last season, but the second and third divisions are even deeper. The gap between fourth and twelfth place has narrowed.
Of the 15 teams in the West, only rebuilding Portland and Utah can be ignored in serious play-in discussions. The rebuilding San Antonio Spurs could be in line for a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. The other 12 teams will be battling for one of six guaranteed spots or, at the very least, one of four play-in spots.
The Western Conference was the main topic of the week on NBC Sports Bay Area’s “Dubs Talk” podcast. There were so many variables that a scheduled 30-minute conversation with our guest, national NBA reporter Sam Amick of The Athletic, stretched into an hour.
The top three teams are, on paper, solid. The Oklahoma City Thunder were the No. 1 seed last season and improved by adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Denver Nuggets, who finished second last season, are set to lose point guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Minnesota Timberwolves finished third and are unlikely to finish lower.
Fourth place, which gives them home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, seems to be where the reigning conference champion Dallas Mavericks should be.
“I think Dallas is there,” Amick said of the roster bolstered by the acquisition of former Warrior Klay Thompson. “I definitely don’t think the Lakers are there. Phoenix is going to be good; I think spending more time together should help them, but their roster is so unbalanced. So I’m probably going to go OKC, Minnesota, Denver and Dallas.”
The final two guaranteed playoff spots will be coveted by the Phoenix Suns, the New Orleans Pelicans, the surging Houston Rockets, the recovering Memphis Grizzlies — and their Northern California rivals, the Warriors and Sacramento Kings.
Sacramento finished ninth last season, ahead of 10th-place Golden State. The Kings won their play-in game, forcing Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson to sit out a playoff-less summer for the first time in franchise history.
We think the Warriors have improved slightly. Buddy Hield will need an adjustment period but he has the potential to replace Thompson’s once-delivered shooting. Kyle Anderson offers two-way versatility as a backup. De’Anthony Melton will help the defense and contribute offensively.
If Curry is usually professionalIf Green is exceptionally available and Gary Payton II is healthy, the Warriors have the potential to be a top-8 pick. If new assistant coaches Terry Stotts (offense) and Jerry Stackhouse (defense) can have a positive impact, Golden State could even climb into the top-6.
There are a lot of “ifs,” for sure, but that can be said of most of these teams.
“What people forget is how good the Warriors were in the second half,” Amick said, referring to Golden State’s 27-12 record over its last 39 games.
Golden State’s brilliant finish to the regular season was shattered by the Kings in the playoff game at the Golden 1 Center. Sacramento took the lead three minutes into the game and held on for a 118-94 victory. These Kings were good.
The new Kings could be better. The addition of five-time All-Star point guard DeMar DeRozan at the expense of Harrison Barnes gives them another proven reliever to partner with De’Aaron Fox. Malik Monk, a flash of brilliance off the bench, opted to re-sign and try again for Sixth Man of the Year.
The Kings or the Warriors? Who finishes better? I say the Warriors. Amick disagrees.
“I’m going to give the Kings the win,” he said. “I’m going to go with the big-name players. I trust Fox and (Domantas) Sabonis and Keegan (Murray) and Monk. I know what they are. If they’re healthy, they’re really good. And I’m really supportive of DeRozan, too.”
“And as great and incredible as Steph is, he needs help. There are a lot of question marks around him right now that maybe can be answered, and we’ll have a fascinating conversation in six months where they’ll really figure it out. And it’s possible. This is the NBA. Crazy things happen.”
Outside of the top three and bottom three, there will be some “crazy stuff” in the West. The Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are the only ones who are guaranteed to get out of the top six. They could be fighting for a play-in spot. After that, it’s a free-for-all.
The Suns will once again be built around Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant — three All-Stars — and not much else. Will Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, two top-notch backup point guards, be able to stabilize a position that was a glaring weakness last season?
Los Angeles Lakers? How long can LeBron James, who turns 40 in December, defy the aging process? This could be the year that Los Angeles’ towering duo of Anthony Davis and James miss another stretch of games. They missed a combined 17 games last season, their fewest since becoming teammates in 2019.
“I’m curious to see the impact of JJ Reddick and how that plays out,” Amick said, referring to the new head coach. “Because even though Darvin Ham took a lot of flak, Darvin got them to the Western Conference Finals the year before. Darvin just ended up losing the support of the star players and JJ has it now.”
The Pelicans now have four proven scorers: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Zion Williamson. But Zion’s availability will determine their potential.
The Grizzlies, coming off a disastrous 27-55 season, will be reinvigorated by the returns of Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and a full season from Desmond Bane. The trio missed a combined 177 games last season.
The Rockets? Even with talented center Alperen Șengun sidelined, they made a nice comeback late last season. They should improve and be at least good enough to make more established teams suffer.
Buckle up. There will be blood in the West. Will the Warriors be equipped to cause more than they lose? Know that they won’t settle for that. Not under CEO Joe Lacob. Not with Curry scrutinizing the entire operation.
If the Warriors are in the middle of the mid-round standings — they should be at least there — they’re sure to look to make a deal before the trade deadline.
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