The NBA draft is a fascinating phenomenon, a game of chance with extremely high stakes and complete unpredictability. But as scouts improve their evaluation processes and prospects continue to improve their overall level, it has become increasingly common to see valuable contributors on draft boards. Of course, there will always be one or two horrible duds in every draft class (*cough* Johnny Davis *cough*).
The basketball world has also learned that it can take years to see the potential in a young player. We’ve seen plenty of examples of slow starters who have gone on to become All-Stars like Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. There have also been instances of young talents who started out hard but failed to develop their game into true stars, like Kelly Oubre Jr. and Deandre Ayton.
Players in the 2019 NBA Draft class, like Zion Williamson, are about to enter their fifth season. Most of them who have reached this point in their careers are on their second or third contract. The 2019 class, led by Zion, his Duke teammates, and Ja Morant, were extremely excited when they arrived in the NBA, and rightfully so. But so far, it’s fair to say that this group has actually been a bit of a disappointment compared to their expectations coming into the league.
Don’t get me wrong. Zion Williamson and Ja Morant have both been absolutely incredible. As expected, Zion is a walk-off player who is either too fast for the real bigs or too strong for perimeter players to try to stop him. He has turned his budding point guard skills into true attacking abilities. Even his jump shot has proven more reliable than initially expected.
Unfortunately, there are a few areas where Zion has not lived up to expectations. He has especially not been the defensive player many thought he would be. With the Blue Devils, he was a singular force on that end of the floor, able to fly all over the floor to deter attackers both on the perimeter and in the paint. That is not the case in the NBA, and he has been more of a liability on defense than a positive contributor in most cases. He is absolutely still capable of being a monumental defensive player, and has shown flashes of incredible brilliance. What has held him back is actually my next point.
Perhaps the most disappointing thing about Zion’s career so far is his obvious lack of fitness. He’s always been an objectively dominant player when he’s on the court, but that makes it even more discouraging to think about the player he could be. You don’t have to be a professional nutritionist or personal trainer to know that Zion has been above his ideal weight for most of his career. This summer, however, it seems that he has lost a lot of weight. If his offseason weight continues, it could mean a whole new Zion and a much more dangerous New Orleans Pelicans team.
As for Ja Morant, he’s been pretty much everything he was promised: an ultra-athletic, first-scoring point guard with incredible physicality and defense-breaking court skills. His shot is still a bit spotty and his defense could use some improvement, but those were both expected of him coming out of college.
For Zion and Ja, the biggest issue in their careers so far has been their physical availability. Between them, they have missed 340 games in five seasons. If this trend continues, it’s hard to imagine either of them reaching the heights many expect of them. Let’s all hope that doesn’t happen.
Outside of the top two picks, the rest of the 2019 draft class has just one combined All-Star appearance: Darius Garland in 2021-22. Since then, he has yet to replicate that level of success, as has been the case for a few different members of the 2019 draft. Garland, RJ Barrett, De’Andre Hunter, Tyler Herro, Brandon Clarke, Jordan Poole, Keldon Johnson, Nicolas Claxton and Terance Mann all showed flashes of star potential, but have stalled in their development of late.
Outside of those names, there are few viable NBA players left in the class. Coby White, Jaxson Hayes, Rui Hachimura, Cam Reddish, PJ Washington, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Matisse Thybulle, Grant Williams, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Bol Bol, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Jalen McDaniels are the only rotation players left, and some of them are also on their way out of the league.
There’s still time for this class to turn things around. Ja will be back from injury next season, Zion is coming off the healthiest campaign of his career and has shed a significant amount of weight, and players like Coby White, Tyler Herro and PJ Washington are experiencing late-season developmental spikes. But they’ll have their work cut out for them to live up to the historical expectations placed on this class.
