The Detroit Pistons had a pretty mediocre season last year, with very few bright spots on the road to a 14-68 record. But among those few bright spots was Ausar Thompson, who finished in the 71st percentile estimated plus-minus (EPM) and was one of six rookies to finish in the 70th percentile or higher. Being one of the few rookies to make an impact while having inconsistent minutes and playing in an undefined role is a pretty impressive piece of work.
This proves how good his defense was already in his rookie year, and at just 21, how good his defense can get in the future. He finished with a defensive ERA of +2.5, which puts him in the 97th percentile and 2nd overall among all players under 22 behind Victor Wembanyama. He gets such good ERA numbers because of his defensive versatility: he secures possessions (79th percentile defensive rebounding rate), gets steals (84th percentile steal rate), and blocks shots (81st percentile block rate) well and exceptionally well considering his age.
Thompson is literally capable of doing everything defensively at a good to great level. This gives him a defensive ceiling similar to Herb Jones in that he may be one of the few non-bigs in NBA history capable of anchoring a top-tier defense. He’s a power forward who can navigate screens and slide his feet around the fastest offensive players, but he’s strong enough at 6’6″ and 200 pounds to compete with larger, strength-based creators. He also has quick hands that intersect with elite hand-eye coordination, leading to a high steal rate while maintaining a decently low foul rate (less than 4 personal fouls per 75 possessions).
This combination of agility, strength and coordination creates a capable perimeter stopper meet someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and make life difficult for them. But his defensive dominance doesn’t stop there.
He’s also capable of protecting the basket. With his speed, vertical ability and 7-foot wingspan, he’s able to cover the floor quickly and pivot to influence shots at the basket. He’s blocked 1.4 shots per 75 possessions and players are shooting -4.0 percent worse than expected at the basket with Thompson in the mix, though a good portion of those shots have come from him as a perimeter defender.
His ground coverage also allows him to position himself well against shooters. His wingspan and hand-eye coordination make him a terror in spaces, which is evident by his high steal rate.
Overall, the interplay between Thompson’s defensive tools and skillset puts him on the path to greatness in this regard. As a point defender, an off-ball terror, a rim protector, and a closing defender capable of securing possessions at an elite rate, he can truly do it all and has the potential to be the defensive anchor for the Detroit Pistons. It’s a high ceiling, but one that could put him in the company of Jones and Marcus Smart as standout non-big defenders of late.
Even if he doesn’t reach that 100th percentile, he was already a near-defensive caliber player in his rookie season. He’s a surefire NBA All-Defensive Team pick in his second or third year; if he can figure out the offense, even slightly, he’ll be a home run pick with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 draft by the Pistons.
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