The New Orleans Pelicans visit the Miami Heat in the Pelicans’ second straight game at Florida State. New Orleans enters this game fighting for one of the top four spots in the Western Conference. The Heat, meanwhile, sit in 7th place just 1/2 game behind the Indiana Pacers as they try to avoid the play-in round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Opening tap for this game is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EST.
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Pels advances
With just 12 games remaining after tonight’s matchup, the Memphis Pelicans are engaged in a dogfight in the Western Conference to secure home-court advantage in the first round. The Pelicans were 8-2 with three straight wins as they entered Orlando with a chance to continue closing the gap on the 4th-ranked Clippers, just one game ahead of them in the loss column. Thursday night against the Magic, the Pelicans fell behind by 20 points after three quarters and lost 121-106. Zion Williamson led the Pels with 20 points and seven rebounds, but he also had eight turnovers. Brandon Ingram was limited to just 14 points in the loss.
By the numbers, the Pelicans rank among the best teams in the league. They certainly have holes, but with Williamson and Ingram in the front court, solid rebounding and a steady veteran guard like McCollum, they will be tough in the playoffs. The Pels are 13th in the NBA in scoring this season. They are an impressive eighth in field goal shooting and fifth in 3-point shooting. The Pelicans are just 17th in 3-point field goals made per game, so they don’t rely exclusively on perimeter offense. Defensively, they are eighth in the NBA in defensive scoring. The Pelicans are fifth in the NBA in field goal defense and have the best 3-point defense in the league. They are eighth in the NBA in total rebounds per game and the Pelicans are 13th in fewest turnovers per game.
Key Injuries: F Matt Ryan (illness) is questionable.
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The heat has work to do
The Miami Heat are also fighting for playoff positioning. Last season, the Heat reached the NBA Finals despite starting in the play-in phase. The Heat would like to avoid having to take such a difficult path in the playoffs this season. The Heat currently sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference standings, just 1/2 game behind Indiana for the coveted sixth spot. The top six spots in each conference avoid the qualifying round, meaning fewer games to play to advance. On Wednesday night, the Heat managed to secure a crucial road victory, 107-104 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams were missing key pieces as the Heat played without center Bam Adebayo and forward Duncan Robinson while the Cavs were missing three starters, Donovan Mitchell, Eric Mobley and Max Straus. Terry Rozier and Jimmy Butler led the way with big nights as Rozier scored nine of his 24 points in the final minute and a half and Butler scored 30 points.
“That’s why we looked for Terry,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said Jan. 23 during a trade with Charlotte. “We wanted to have another guy who can make things happen late in games. He’s always been that type of player in big moments with Charlotte and of course with Boston.”
Every game until the end will be crucial for the Heat. Six of their remaining 12 games after tonight will be against teams with a losing record. They will also have one more chance against the Pacers. Miami is 27th in the NBA in scoring this season. The Heat are 23rd in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point field goal percentage. They are just 20th in 3-point field goals made per game. On the defensive side, the Heat are fourth in defense this season. They are 11th in field goal defense and 3-point defense. The Heat are just 26th in the league in total rebounds per game this year. They are eighth in fewest turnovers.
Key Injuries: G Tyler Herro is out. C Bam Adebayo, F Kevin Love and G/F Duncan Robinson are all questionable.
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Best bets for this game
Full Game Side Bet
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When you dive into the numbers, it’s hard not to come away impressed with the Pelicans. They are above average in protecting the basketball, even though they have entrusted much of the ball-handling to a forward, Ingram. They are excellent on the glass, shoot the ball well and defend the ball well. At this point, the only thing holding them back in the playoffs might be a lack of experience. The Heat, on the other hand, are loaded with experience but also loaded with injuries. Head coach Spoelstra always does a masterful job managing the season by thinking about the big picture rather than just one game. The Heat proved last season that they could make the playoffs from any location. With that in mind, I expect the Heat to be cautious with several injured players entering this game. The Pelicans, however, are fresh and healthy and will push for that fourth spot in the Western Conference. With a short trip to Miami from Orlando, I don’t expect fatigue to play a role in this second night in a row. Look for the Pelicans to control the boards, force Miami into tough shots and pick up a critical road victory.
Take New Orleans.
Prediction: New Orleans will cover
Total choice of the complete game
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Losing five of their last eight games, the Heat have been held under 100 points twice and have failed to surpass 110 points in six of those eight games. The Pelicans will be more than happy to play a slightly slower game on the second night of a back-to-back. They are eighth in the league in defensive scoring and do a great job on the perimeter which will limit Miami’s 3-point field goals. Miami plays at the second slowest pace in the league and is only 27th in the standings. I expect this one to stay below the total.
Take the bottom.
Prediction: under
